RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE? HERE’S HOW IT WOULD AFFECT THE POLISH ECONOMY

Director of the UKSW Center for the World Economy, Prof. Konrad Raczkowski, PhD, gave an interview to the Business Insider portal in connection with the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Below are the most important statements.

– According to U.S. intelligence provided to NATO members, Russia has been preparing for a potential attack on Ukraine for a long time, and this threat is real. This is evidenced both by the scale of the disinformation campaign talking about the alleged threat to Russia from NATO and Ukraine, the mobilization of 175,000 tactical troops and the mobilization of an additional 100,000 reservists and the deployment of at least 90,000 of them close to the Ukrainian border.

– Following the style and form of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, as well as the U.S. focus on China, Moscow will not be driven by fear, but by the opportunity they believe has just presented itself, given also the destabilization in Europe and its dependence on Russian gas, the new government in Germany or the April presidential election in France, which, according to second-round polls, gives Republican candidate Valerie Pecresse a better chance than incumbent President Macron.

– Any military conflict in the area of a country’s borders negatively affects that country’s economy, and it would be the same for Poland. It’s not just that a large part of Polish exports would be halted, which unfortunately would happen to some extent. Much greater is the risk that Ukraine’s energy synchronization with the EU would be disrupted and that the modernization of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant, involving the US company Westinghouse, would then potentially be halted. What follows is the threat of Poland importing electricity from Ukraine, which in Poland’s current difficulties in balancing the national power system would be particularly important.

The entire interview with Prof. Raczkowski can be read at: https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/inwazja-rosji-na-ukraine-oto-jak-odbilaby-sie-na-polskiej-gospodarce/59enfxd